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The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), crucial for predicting future sea-level rise, is threatened by ocean-forced melting in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. While some geological records and ice-sheet models suggest WAIS retreat during past warm periods, reliable data constraining the extent of retreat are lacking. Detrital Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope data of sediments recently drilled at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1532 on the Amundsen Sea continental rise manifest repeated alternations in sediment provenance during glacial–interglacial cycles of the Pliocene (5.33 to 2.58 Mya), a time warmer than present. The variations reflect large fluctuations in WAIS extent on the Antarctic continent. A unique high Pb/low ε_Ndsignature of sediments found at the onset of glacial intervals (3.88, 3.6, and 3.33 Ma) is attributed to the supply of detritus sourced from plutonic rocks located in the West Antarctic interior. Its isotopic signature at Site U1532 indicates major inland retreat of the WAIS during the preceding interglacials. During peak interglacials, the ice margin had retreated inland, and icebergs rafted and deposited inland-sourced detritus over 500 km across the Amundsen Sea shelf. Subsequent readvance of grounded ice then “bulldozed” these inland-derived fine-grained sediments from the shelf down to the continental slope and rise, resulting in a high Pb/low ε_Ndpeak in the rise sediments. Our continuous Pliocene records provide conclusive evidence for at least five major inland retreat events of the WAIS, highlighting the significant vulnerability of the WAIS to ongoing warming. 

The stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), crucial for preventing major future sea-level rise, is threatened by ocean-forced melting in the Pacific sector, especially in the Amundsen Sea. So far, direct evidence of the extent and rate of WAIS retreat during past warm periods has been lacking. Here, we analyzed detrital Nd, Sr, and Pb isotope data of sediments ( 18.93 for 206Pb/204Pb) and low eNd (< –5 eNd) values. This distinct isotopic signature suggests long-distance supply of detritus sourced from plutonic rocks located in the continental interior. The presence of this material at Site U1532 indicates major inland retreat of the WAIS during the immediately preceding interglacials, which allowed icebergs to transport and deposit the detritus on the Amundsen Sea shelf. Our Pliocene records reveal multiple major inland retreats of the WAIS, highlighting the extent of possible WAIS response to ongoing global warming.  

We apply geologic evidence from ice-free areas in Antarctica to evaluate model simulations of ice sheet response to warm climates. This is important because such simulations are used to predict ice sheet behaviour in future warm climates, but geologic evidence of smaller-than-present past ice sheets is buried under the present ice sheet and therefore generally unavailable for model benchmarking. We leverage an alternative accessible geologic dataset for this purpose: cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in bedrock surfaces of interior nunataks. These data produce a frequency distribution of ice thickness over multimillion-year periods, which is also simulated by ice sheet modelling. End-member transient models, parameterized with strong and weak marine ice sheet instability processes and ocean temperature forcings, simulate large and small sea-level impacts during warm periods and also predict contrasting and distinct frequency distributions of ice thickness. We identify regions of Antarctica where predicted frequency distributions reveal differences in end-member ice sheet behaviour. We then demonstrate that a single comprehensive dataset from one bedrock site in West Antarctica is sufficiently detailed to show that the data are consistent only with a weak marine ice sheet instability end-member, but other less extensive datasets are insufficient and/or ambiguous. Finally, we highlight locations where collecting additional data could constrain the amplitude of past and therefore future response to warm climates. 

Abstract In the Ross Sea sector of Antarctica, periodic large-scale marine ice-sheet fluctuations since the mid-Miocene are recorded by drill core and seismic data, revealing a dynamic ice-sheet response to past increases in temperature and atmospheric CO2. In the adjacent, predominantly ice-free McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs), preserved terrestrial landscapes reflect persistent cold conditions and have been interpreted as indicators of a stable polar ice sheet, implying that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was largely insensitive during past warm periods. These disparate data-based perspectives highlight a long-standing debate around the past stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with direct implications for the future ice-sheet response to ongoing climate warming. We reconcile marine records of dynamic ice-sheet behavior and episodic open-marine conditions with nearby ancient terrestrial landscapes recording consistent cold-polar conditions. Coupled ice-sheet and regional climate models nested at a high resolution are used to investigate surface temperatures in the MDVs during past warm periods. We find that high-elevation regions of the MDVs remain below freezing even when ice-free conditions prevail in the nearby Ross Sea. We compare observed landscapes with the spatial extent of modeled persistent cold conditions required for preservation of these ancient features, demonstrating that frozen MDVs landscapes could have coexisted with receded or collapsed ice sheets during past warm periods. 

Abstract Surface meltwater is becoming increasingly widespread on Antarctic ice shelves. It is stored within surface ponds and streams, or within firn pore spaces, which may saturate to form slush. Slush can reduce firn air content, increasing an ice-shelf's vulnerability to break-up. To date, no study has mapped the changing extent of slush across ice shelves. Here, we use Google Earth Engine and Landsat 8 images from six ice shelves to generate training classes using a k -means clustering algorithm, which are used to train a random forest classifier to identify both slush and ponded water. Validation using expert elicitation gives accuracies of 84% and 82% for the ponded water and slush classes, respectively. Errors result from subjectivity in identifying the ponded water/slush boundary, and from inclusion of cloud and shadows. We apply our classifier to the Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf for the entire 2013–20 Landsat 8 record. On average, 64% of all surface meltwater is classified as slush and 36% as ponded water. Total meltwater areal extent is greatest between late January and mid-February. This highlights the importance of mapping slush when studying surface meltwater on ice shelves. Future research will apply the classifier across all Antarctic ice shelves. 

Melt and supraglacial lakes are precursors to ice shelf collapse and subsequent accelerated ice sheet mass loss. We used data from the Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 satellites to develop a threshold-based method for detection of lakes found on the Antarctic ice shelves, calculate their depths and thus their volumes. To achieve this, we focus on four key areas: the Amery, Roi Baudouin, Nivlisen, and Riiser-Larsen ice shelves, which are all characterized by extensive surface meltwater features. To validate our products, we compare our results against those obtained by an independent method based on a supervised classification scheme (e.g., Random Forest algorithm). Additional verification is provided by manual inspection of results for nearly 1000 Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images. Our dual-sensor approach will enable constructing high-resolution time series of lake volumes. Therefore, to ensure interoperability between the two datasets, we evaluate depths from contemporaneous Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 image pairs. Our assessments point to a high degree of correspondence, producing an average R2 value of 0.85, no bias, and an average RMSE of 0.2 m. We demonstrate our method’s ability to characterize lake evolution by presenting first evidence of drainage events outside of the Antarctic Peninsula on the Amery Ice shelf. The methods presented here pave the way to upscaling throughout the Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 observational record across Antarctica to produce a first-ever continental dataset of supraglacial lake volumes. Such a dataset will improve our understanding of the influence of surface hydrology on ice shelf stability, and thus, future projections of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise. 

Surface meltwater generated on ice shelves fringing the Antarctic Ice Sheet can drive ice-shelf collapse, leading to ice sheet mass loss and contributing to global sea level rise. A quantitative assessment of supraglacial lake evolution is required to understand the influence of Antarctic surface meltwater on ice-sheet and ice-shelf stability. Cloud computing platforms have made the required remote sensing analysis computationally trivial, yet a careful evaluation of image processing techniques for pan-Antarctic lake mapping has yet to be performed. This work paves the way for automating lake identification at a continental scale throughout the satellite observational record via a thorough methodological analysis. We deploy a suite of different trained supervised classifiers to map and quantify supraglacial lake areas from multispectral Landsat-8 scenes, using training data generated via manual interpretation of the results from k-means clustering. Best results are obtained using training datasets that comprise spectrally diverse unsupervised clusters from multiple regions and that include rock and cloud shadow classes. We successfully apply our trained supervised classifiers across two ice shelves with different supraglacial lake characteristics above a threshold sun elevation of 20°, achieving classification accuracies of over 90% when compared to manually generated validation datasets. The application of our trained classifiers produces a seasonal pattern of lake evolution. Cloud shadowed areas hinder large-scale application of our classifiers, as in previous work. Our results show that caution is required before deploying ‘off the shelf’ algorithms for lake mapping in Antarctica, and suggest that careful scrutiny of training data and desired output classes is essential for accurate results. Our supervised classification technique provides an alternative and independent method of lake identification to inform the development of a continent-wide supraglacial lake mapping product.